Forecasting the effectiveness of policy implementation strategies

An important stage in the policy process involves deciding what strategy is to be adopted for implementation so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best way possible. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS amongst several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid in such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a decision-support tool.Current methods for such a purpose are found to include ex-ante evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment (IA) and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). However, these approaches are often resource-intensive and such an investment is not always rewarded with accurate predictions. Hence, a judgmental forecasting approach for making PIS effectiveness predictions is proposed as a means for screening the different PIS under contention to provide a shortlist of candidates with particular potential. The selected few can then be further analysed via the quantitative evaluative techniques such as IA and CBA. Judgmental approaches to forecasting are considered ideal for such a role because they are relatively quick and inexpensive to implement. More specifically, a structured analogies approach is proposed as information about analogous PIS is believed to be useful for such a purpose.The proposed structured analogies approach is tested over a series of experiments and the evidence suggests that a structured analogies approach is more accurate when compared to unaided judgment and the more support given to the expert the better. Furthermore, experts were seen to produce considerably more accurate predictions than non-experts. Level of experience and number of analogies recalled did not seem to affect accuracy. The expert forecasts were also comparable to those produced by governments. The thesis concludes with suggestions for future research in the area.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

The Comet Interceptor Mission

Here we describe the novel, multi-point Comet Interceptor mission. It is dedicated to the exploration of a little-processed long-period comet, possibly entering the inner Solar System for the first time, or to encounter an interstellar object originating at another star. The objectives of the mission are to address the following questions: What are the surface composition, shape, morphology, and structure of the target object? What is the composition of the gas and dust in the coma, its connection to the nucleus, and the nature of its interaction with the solar wind? The mission was proposed to the European Space Agency in 2018, and formally adopted by the agency in June 2022, for launch in 2029 together with the Ariel mission. Comet Interceptor will take advantage of the opportunity presented by ESA’s F-Class call for fast, flexible, low-cost missions to which it was proposed. The call required a launch to a halo orbit around the Sun-Earth L2 point. The mission can take advantage of this placement to wait for the discovery of a suitable comet reachable with its minimum ΔV capability of 600 ms−1. Comet Interceptor will be unique in encountering and studying, at a nominal closest approach distance of 1000 km, a comet that represents a near-pristine sample of material from the formation of the Solar System. It will also add a capability that no previous cometary mission has had, which is to deploy two sub-probes – B1, provided by the Japanese space agency, JAXA, and B2 – that will follow different trajectories through the coma. While the main probe passes at a nominal 1000 km distance, probes B1 and B2 will follow different chords through the coma at distances of 850 km and 400 km, respectively. The result will be unique, simultaneous, spatially resolved information of the 3-dimensional properties of the target comet and its interaction with the space environment. We present the mission’s science background leading to these objectives, as well as an overview of the scientific instruments, mission design, and schedule

A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning

An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents – a truly stochastic variable.time series forecasting; exponential smoothing; credit hire operators; CHO; automobile industry insurance industry; UK; United Kingdom; road accidents; automotive accidents; car accidents.